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On graphite mining, local climate policy, and East Asia’s LNG crunch

Current conditions: Thunderstorms are ripping through the Ohio Valley with winds of up to 85 miles per hour • The historic heat wave in the Southwest is finally cooling down, with temperatures in Phoenix hitting 100 degrees Fahrenheit today before easing into the mid-90s over the weekend • Hail storms that pummeled Laos damaged the roofs of thousands of homes in the capital Vientiane.

A week ago, I told you that Chinese automakers were wasting no time in setting up a Canadian beachhead in the North American vehicle market, with at least three companies on track to start selling cars by the end of this year. Now the largest of Beijing’s auto giants, BYD, has outlined plans for at least 20 dealerships in its first year in Canada. The company “is moving fast to establish a physical retail presence in Canada,” Electrek reported, and is already scouting out locations in the Toronto area. BYD has hired Dealer Solutions Mergers & Acquisitions, an Ontario-based automotive consultancy, to find dealership locations throughout the country. “They’ve asked us to help them find as many of the 20 that they possibly can, but they’re out there doing that themselves, as well,” Farid Ahmad, the consultancy’s chief executive, told The Global and Mail. BYD’s cutting-edge designs and low price tags are the result of China’ ability to “innovate so relentlessly because of its abundance of process knowledge,” Heatmap’s Robinson Meyer wrote last year, citing Dan Wang, a researcher at Yale Law School who studies Chinese technology. “This community of engineering practice may have been seeded by Apple’s iPhone-manufacturing effort in the aughts and Tesla’s carmaking prowess in the 2010s, but it has now taken on a life of its own.” BYD is also tapping good old-fashioned Hollywood starpower to promote its global rollout. On Wednesday, the company’s luxury brand, Denza, announced British actor Daniel Craig as the face of its new advertising campaign.
Ford, meanwhile, is sweating the competition as the iconic American automaker seeks to rebuild its electric vehicle line from the ground up. The first models designed through the company's new Model T-like approach are due out next year, InsideEVs reported this week.
The top U.S. electricity regulator criticized tech companies for not engaging federal authorities more on the buildout of artificial intelligence data centers. In remarks Axios reported from CERAWeek in Houston, Laura Swett, the chair of the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, said she talks to utilities about surging data center demand “probably nine times as much” as she hears from hyperscalers. “I don’t talk to them as much as I thought that they would be coming to me,” she said. Axios reporter Amy Harder called the comments “unusually blunt, far more candid than a lot of other main stage conversations underway here at what’s considered the world’s most influential energy gathering.”
The backlash to data centers, a force Heatmap’s Jael Holzman wrote is “swallowing American politics,” is only growing. On Thursday, two U.S. senators, Democrat Elizabeth Warren and Republican Josh Hawley, sent a letter to the Energy Information Administration urging the agency to collect “comprehensive, annual energy-use disclosures” on data centers, according to a scoop from Wired reporter Molly Taft.
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The Trump administration is adding yet another mineral company to the federal government’s portfolio of equity stakes. On Wednesday, the U.S. International Development Finance Corporation announced a strategic investment in Australia’s Syrah Resources. The company’s facility in Louisiana is the first U.S. supplier of natural graphite, a key battery material. Syrah also controls the Balama mine in Mozambique, one of the world’s largest natural graphite reserves. The agency plans to convert a $31 million loan into equity, taking a roughly 20% stake in the company. Once complete, the deal will make the DFC the second-largest shareholder in the miner. “In today’s era of global competition, economic security is national security,” Ben Black, the DFC’s chief executive, said in a statement. “With this transaction, we will secure U.S. access to one of the largest graphite reserves in the world, supply jobs for the U.S. and our allies, and support a valuable hub of economic activity for the people of Mozambique.”
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Two legal decisions that came down this week highlighted the limits of both municipalities’ right to sue over the effects of global warming and a key federal statute’s authority to stop the city government in Washington, D.C., from adopting greener building codes. On Tuesday, Maryland’s Supreme Court tossed out lawsuits filed against fossil fuel companies by Baltimore, Annapolis, and Anne Arundel County, ruling that the localities were stepping on federal jurisdiction in what Maryland Matters called a “scathing decision.”
Then came the second decision, coincidentally just over the border in the nation’s capital. On Thursday, Judge Ana Reyes of the U.S. District Court for the District of Columbia “roundly rejected” claims by trade associations representing the gas industry that the federal Energy Policy and Conservation Act prevented Washington from requiring in 2022 that new and renovated buildings be constructed to a net-zero energy standard by 2027, E&E News reported. The federal statute sets energy efficiency standards for appliances and bars state and local regulators from enacting rules that would alter a product’s design. But Reyes ruled that the EPCA, as it’s known, does not prevent local or state governments from tightening rules on energy consumption.
Two of East Asia’s biggest economies, Taiwan and Japan, grew increasingly dependent on shipments of liquified natural gas over the past decade as the former phased out nuclear power entirely and the latter paused its reactors in the wake of the Fukushima disaster. Now that gas tankers coming from one of the world’s top suppliers, Qatar, can’t traverse the Strait of Hormuz, the two Pacific archipelago nations are in a bind. Japan is racing to turn its nuclear reactors back on, as I have previously written. In the meantime, Tokyo has just lifted restrictions on the operation of coal-fired power plants in a bid to shore up the electricity supply, Nikkei reported. Taiwan, on the other hand, is stockpiling LNG and finding alternative vendors. On Wednesday, the Ministry of Economic Affairs said Taiwan had more than its legally-required 11 days of cushion if all shipments halted. The self-governing island, meanwhile, spent an extra $600 million to secure LNG through June to replace the lost Qatari supply, Bloomberg reporter Stephen Stapczynski noted on X. The prices were roughly twice as high as before the war.
Norway made history last year with the first shipment to its debut carbon storage facility near the North Sea, as I wrote last summer. Now the country is taking another stride in carbon capture and storage with the launch of a new bioenergy project paired with CCS that Carbon Herald described as “the first permanent storage of biogenic carbon dioxide captured from biogas production.” While a mouthful, the distinction is notable. The facility just began transporting and storing liquified CO2 captured from a wastewater facility, injecting the carbon into geological formations roughly 8,500 feet into the North Sea’s seabed. When the wastewater treatment plant produces biogas as organic waste breaks down, carbon dioxide comes out as a byproduct. Instead of entering the atmosphere, “this stream is captured, purified, and prepared for transport.”
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A new scientific report on the state of the industry shows a growing gap between what we can do and what we need to do.
The gap between the world’s current capacity to remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere and the amount we’ll need to remove to materially address climate change is so large, it's hard to fathom crossing it. Now, a new report warns that the chasm is widening.
The third State of Carbon Dioxide Removal report, published on Tuesday, finds that while carbon removal research and deployment has advanced significantly in the past two years, it is still not growing quickly enough to reach the scale required to support the Paris Agreement temperature limits. Carbon emissions, meanwhile, have continued to rise globally, raising the amount of carbon removal required in turn.
“We’re seeing a lot of signs that there’s still growth happening,” Morgan Edwards, an assistant professor of public affairs at the University of Wisconsin, Madison, and one of the authors, told me. “But we need to see a step change in both early indicators like investment and also actual deployments” between now and 2030, in addition to serious emission reductions, she said.
The State of Carbon Dioxide Removal is a project between researchers at the University of Wisconsin, Madison, the University of Maryland, the University of Oxford, the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, and the German Institute for International and Security Affairs. The latest report collates a wide range of indicators to assemble a detailed portrait of progress in the sector, from the number of research papers and patents published, to project deployments, costs, and investment, to voluntary purchases and policies.
The world currently removes approximately 2.2 billion tons of carbon from the atmosphere each year through intentional human activity, the authors found, which is equivalent to about 5% of annual global carbon dioxide emissions. Nearly all of that carbon removal happens through what the authors deem “conventional” methods, which include planting trees, improved forest management, soil sequestration on farms and grasslands, and coastal wetland restoration.
Less than 1% of the 2.2 billion tons comes from “novel” methods such as direct air capture, bioenergy with carbon capture, enhanced weathering, and biochar, the most common method. Novel carbon removal increased from 1.4 million tons in 2023 to 2 million tons in 2025, with biochar responsible for most of that. In total, novel forms of carbon removal have to grow to 70 million by 2030 and 360 million by 2035 for the world to achieve net zero and begin to reverse warming back down to 1.5 degrees Celsius this century, the authors found. And that’s assuming the emissions curve starts to bend dramatically downward.
“The gap will continue to grow if we do not pursue immediate and ambitious emissions reductions today,” Edwards said. Though the Paris Agreement’s 1.5-degree goal looks to be receding further out of reach, she stressed that net-zero emissions implies significant carbon removal, regardless of what temperature target you’re aiming for.
No matter how you look at it, getting to 70 million tons by 2030 would require a major shift. Right now, the most optimistic expectation for how much the carbon removal industry will grow by that point, based on corporate announcements, is about 42 million tons per year by 2030, according to the report. The capacity in the pipeline from projects that are under construction, however, amounts to just 8.4 million by 2030. At the country level, only about a third of national climate strategies even mention novel carbon removal methods, and overall carbon removal ambition among countries would have to double to close the 2030 gap.
This isn’t impossible — other technologies have achieved comparable growth rates. The report’s authors estimate that carbon removal would have to scale at speeds similar to solar power and electric vehicles. Unlike those singular solutions, however, carbon removal consists of many different technologies that intersect with a range of industries — oil and gas drilling, farming, forestry, mining — and therefore may not scale as linearly. Also, unlike EVs and solar, carbon removal isn’t a useful product with an obvious market. It’s a public good, like waste management — and an expensive one, at that.
Carbon removal funding is also highly concentrated, the authors warn, making the industry vulnerable to sudden shifts in policy and investment appetite. For example, Microsoft alone has made more than 80% of carbon removal purchases to date; then in April it confirmed it was pausing procurements, leaving behind major uncertainty over who, if anyone, will fill its role in the market. Similarly, most government funding for pilot projects to date has concentrated in three countries — the U.S., Sweden, and Denmark — but more recently the U.S. has dismantled much of its support.
The industry is also concentrated in terms of deployment. Biochar and bioenergy with carbon capture account for almost all of the 2 million tons of novel removals the authors identified. Direct air capture facilities removed just 1,500 tons in 2025, according to the report. All of that came from Climeworks’ two facilities in Iceland — Orca and Mammoth — and it’s significantly less than the roughly 40,000 tons these facilities were designed to capture each year. (While there are a few other direct air capture plants operating, they have not yet had any removals certified by a third party, and so were not included in the estimate.)
There are some bright spots in the report. Research funding, scientific publications, demonstration projects, public policies, and private investment in carbon removal are all trending up. It’s just that the results of these efforts — in terms of patents, projects under construction, and the amount of carbon being removed — are uneven.
While the report is a valiant effort to assess how far carbon removal has come, the overall picture remains deeply uncertain. That word, “uncertain,” appears over and over, applying to such questions as:
The authors emphasize the need for more research, public policy, and funding to narrow these uncertainties — especially on the demand side of the equation.
“Both demand and supply side policies are important for innovation, but much of the policy we’ve seen for CDR today has been more supply-side focused,” said Edwards. “There’s a need for a strong signal to companies who are developing these technologies and implementing CDR on the ground that the demand will be there.”
On Anthropic’s IPO, home energy rebates, and French rare earths
Current conditions: The most powerful storm to hit Western Australia in 49 years has deluged the capital of Perth • Temperatures in the Arizonan metropolis of Phoenix are climbing to 103 degrees Fahrenheit today, and will stay around that level all week • South Georgia Island, a British overseas territory near Antarctica in the Atlantic, is bracing for heavy snow.
Anthropic, the artificial intelligence giant behind the chatbot Claude, filed the first documents to the Securities and Exchange Commission to make its stock market debut. The company submitted a confidential S-1, meaning that — unlike the recent SpaceX filing — the details aren’t yet publicly available. By doing so, Anthropic has “the option to go public after the SEC completes its review,” the company wrote Monday in a blog post. The number of shares to be offered and the price “have not yet been set.” The IPO could have big energy implications. Unlike some hyperscalers, who have pushed back against the public blowback to data centers, Anthropic vowed three months ago to pay to offset electricity price hikes from its server farms, as I previously wrote. Coupled with the news yesterday morning that Iran had broken off negotiations with the U.S. to end the conflict blocking the Strait of Hormuz, Monday offered clear evidence of what Heatmap’s Robinson Meyer described as the electricity economy “having its moment.”
Here are a couple more data points: Later on Monday, Berkshire Hathaway, the investment company formerly run by Warren Buffett, announced plans to invest $80 billion into Google owner Alphabet’s data center buildout. Meanwhile, Mike Schroepfer, the former chief technology officer of Facebook parent Meta Platforms, raised $250 million for his climate-tech venture capital firm Gigascale, Bloomberg reported.
On Monday, the Department of Energy released its long-awaited guidance on how to use the remaining home rebate programs left intact after Republicans repealed broad swaths of the Inflation Reduction Act. Unsurprisingly, the program — which had a complicated rollout — initially meant to support deployment of electric heating is now no longer available for homeowners hoping to switch from gas to electric.
“Make no mistake: This is part of a coordinated strategy to boost fossil fuel profits at the expense of working families,” Tony Sirna, the deputy policy director of buildings at the progressive climate group Evergreen Action, said in a statement. “These home electrification rebates were a lifeline for families who otherwise could not afford to upgrade their homes and escape rising energy costs. Gutting them ensures millions of households remain captive customers of greedy gas utilities now poised to saddle ratepayers with up to $1.4 trillion in costs for pipelines that will ultimately be underused or entirely unnecessary.”
Allow me to break with journalistic convention and lead with the dog-bites-man story: China, already the world leader in building its own nuclear reactors, just installed the containment dome on its latest reactor at the Lianjiang nuclear power plant in Guangdong province, World Nuclear News reported. This is a vital step toward completing construction, though not unusual in a country with a whopping three dozen commercial fission reactors underway.
And now for the man-bites-dog. The United Kingdom, whose nuclear industry has long suffered the same anemia as that in the United States, just reached a major milestone on its long-delayed Hinkley Point C nuclear site in southwest England. On Monday, NucNet reported that the second reactor pressure vessel had been lifted into place by the world’s largest crane.
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A federal judge in Denver halted the Trump administration’s effort to carve up Boulder’s National Center for Atmospheric Research by handing over a supercomputing center to the University of Wyoming. The 38-page injunction, detailed in the Colorado Sun, called the move by the National Science Foundation to divest from the supercomputing center “arbitrary, capricious, an abuse of discretion, or otherwise not in accordance with law.” Senior U.S. District Judge R. Brooke Jackson argued that his decision was necessary because a lawsuit filed in March by the University Corporation for Atmospheric Research was likely to succeed, and “too much damage had already been done to the supercomputing center’s operations.”
The U.S. wants to quit Chinese minerals. But mining all those metals domestically is virtually impossible. As a result, one of the two big rare earths champions in which the Trump administration took an equity stake is now looking to Europe. On Monday, USA Rare Earth announced plans to invest more than $204 million into producing rare earths and magnets made from them. The deal, per Mining.com, builds off a previous agreement to acquire a stake in the French rare-earth processor Carester for $47 million.
France isn’t the only country netting some green investment. On Monday, Italian oil giant Eni announced its own bet on battery manufacturing. The company reached a deal for a joint venture with Seri Industrial Group to develop an integrated industrial supply chain for lithium-iron-phosphate batteries. The deal will close by the end of this week. Eni said the deal “adds another piece to the puzzle of completing the supply chain from critical minerals to the production of energy storage.”
Rob gets into the latest state-level policy developments with Heatmap’s own Emily Pontecorvo.
When New York passed its first major climate law in 2019, climate advocates hailed the work as a milestone: The Empire State vowed to cut its carbon emissions by 40% by 2030, as compared to their 1990 levels, giving it some of the world’s most ambitious subnational climate policy. But last week, Governor Kathy Hochul and the state legislature moved to rewrite key provisions in that law, weakening deadlines and redefining its emissions math.
What happened? And would New York have ever been able to hit its 2030 goal? On this episode of Shift Key, Rob is joined by Emily Pontecorvo, a founding staff writer at Heatmap. They discuss how New York has changed its targets, why it has altered its approach to natural gas, and whether state-level climate goals can survive an age of affordability politics.
Shift Key is hosted by Robinson Meyer, the founding executive editor of Heatmap News.
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Here is an excerpt from their conversation:
Robinson Meyer: The other thing they did was this accounting change around how the state law considers methane. Can you talk a little bit about that?
Emily Pontecorvo: So, one of the things that made the New York climate law especially ambitious was they created in the law this rule that they were going to account for methane very differently than the way that almost any other state and most of the rest of the world does. And I’m sure listeners know, but methane is another greenhouse gas. It’s much more powerful than carbon dioxide, but it doesn’t stay in the atmosphere as long. It breaks down more quickly.
And so when you’re trying to kind of convert all greenhouse gases into one number, a carbon dioxide equivalent, there’s different ways to do that. You can measure methane on its effect on the atmosphere on warming over a 20-year period, which will make it look very, very strong because it’s strongest during that period. Or you can measure it over a 100-year period. These are the two common ways of doing it. And while much of the rest of the world uses the 100-year global warming potential of methane, New York was using the 20-year, which meant that all of New York’s methane emissions from landfills, from natural gas, those emissions had a much bigger effect on the state’s overall emissions. So it made the overall emissions seem higher on paper than if New York had used this other, 100-year global warming potential.
And there was actually a second thing that New York did that was unique, which is the state said, we’re not just going to account for the methane emissions that happen within our economy, within our borders. We’re also going to take ownership and take responsibility for methane from upstream from the natural gas that we use. So New York gets a lot of its natural gas from Pennsylvania, from West Virginia. And so New York is keeping on its own books the methane that’s leaks out of the drilling and pipelines and other infrastructure in those other states.
And so the big change in the budget deal was one, that New York was no longer going to include those emissions upstream in its own ledger. And two, that it’s going to switch to this 100-year accounting global warming potential. And so those two things combined, it really just takes a lot of carbon dioxide equivalent, or it takes a lot of methane off of New York’s books and makes the distance between now and the 2030 goal look a lot smaller.
Meyer: Stepping back, methane, as we’ve been saying, is a short-lived greenhouse gas. It’s extremely potent when it’s first released into the atmosphere, and then it quickly breaks down into carbon dioxide. And what’s interesting about it is that if you look at a molecule of methane, it is actually going to trap far more heat.
So methane, CH4, it will eventually oxidize down and break down into CO2. A singular molecule, the carbon in a molecule of methane, is going to trap more heat over its lifetime as an emission in the atmosphere in its CO2 form than in its CH4 form. And that’s because CO2 is extremely long-lived in the atmosphere. Basically, methane lasts 20 years in the atmosphere or so. It has this somewhat unstable and changing rate of decay in the atmosphere, but it’s not going to last longer than 100 years. And then CO2 will last roughly 1,000 years in the atmosphere. It essentially has a geological time scale in the atmosphere.
So methane’s going to matter way more later on as CO2. But as the U.S. energy system has come to rely more on natural gas, and therefore, as methane emissions have gone up, because methane is the largest component of natural gas, there was an effort to basically ... I don’t want to say make the methane emissions look worse, but like, try to capture — I think the counterargument here was that a lot of short-term warming seems to be coming from methane, and so therefore we should make methane look worse in the accounting than it might if we took a totally kind of apolitical, long-termist, geological accounting scale.
You can find a full transcript of the episode here.
Mentioned:
How New York Is Weakening Its Climate Law, by Emily Pontecorvo
LA Times: After heated debate, California updates key climate limit. Critics say it’s a retreat
This episode of Shift Key is sponsored by ...
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Music for Shift Key is by Adam Kromelow.